Down to Three – A Simplified Scenario

Ciro Ferreira Gomes

Down to Three – The Presidential Race Gets Rationalized

The Presidential race is about to change from four declared candidates to three. Insofar as there is already a race, and there undoubtedly is between the two top candidates, José Serra, (PSDB) former Governor of the State of São Paulo, and Dilma Rousseff (PT) the former Minister of Casa Civil, the one candidate who has had difficulty finding a strategy is the former Governor of the State of Ceara, Minister of Finance in the government of Itamar Franco, and currently Federal Deputy, Ciro Gomes.

The fourth candidate is Marina Silva, formerly the Minister of the Environment in the government of President Lula, and currently the Presidential candidate of the Green Party.

Today’s news concerns the candidacy of Ciro Gomes, which has lacked a certain consistency. On the one hand, Ciro is close to President Lula, as he has served in his administration, and is associated with the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB) that is a natural ally of President Lula’s Party, the PT, and candidate, Dilma Rousseff. On the other hand, Ciro Gomez has attempted to be an ally of Governor Aécio Neves (PSDB) of Minas Gerais in encouraging the Governor to become a Presidential candidate and compete for the PSDB’s candidacy with José Serra, the opponent of Dilma Rousseff.

The fact that first, Aécio Neves decided not to compete with José Serra, and that secondly, the PSB’s desire to support a winner in the Presidential race i.e. the PT’s candidate, has left Ciro Gomes isolated. For what its worth at this stage of the Presidential election, Ciro Gomes’ standing in the polls has declined from the 13% level in January, to 8% today.

To be sure, President Lula has made signals that he would like Ciro Gomes to be the PT coalition’s candidate for the Governorship of the State of São Paulo this year. Ciro Gomes was actually born in the State of São Paulo, but has lived or been associated for most of his life with the State of Ceará. However, he has taken the precaution to re-register himself as a resident and voter in the State of São Paulo. We divine from his lack of interest so far in running for Governor, that the prospect of an electoral race against Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) appears to him to be an uphill struggle.

In discussions yesterday the PSB and Ciro Gomes have come to the conclusion that his candidacy will not be endorsed by the PSB, but that regional directors of the PSB will suggest to Ciro that they see their future in the Presidential Election as being allied to the PT in support of Dilma Rousseff. This would provide Ciro Gomez with a way to gracefully withdraw his candidacy without it being seen that he was being pressured by President Lula. Or, that within the PSB there was a lack of respect for him as a candidate. The PSB’s announcement will be made on Tuesday of next week.

None of the above provides Ciro with an indication of what he might do next, but at 52 years old he still has time to wait.