Archive for the ‘Elections’ Category
Going to the Second Round
Winning while Losing
The results of the election also showed that the Brazilian population has a mind and a will of its own, and will not be easily bamboozled into accepting candidates that are sponsored by existing popular Presidents and governments without having a requisite amount of time to make a thoughtful decision.
The Presidential election, first round, produced no winner, as the effective election of a Presidential candidate requires 50% + 1 of valid votes. Dilma Rousseff, the candidate of the Workers Party, the existing government and President Lula came up short of the 50% necessary, receiving 46.8%.
Time has its way of changing perspectives, and if this result had been foreseen in May of this year when Dilma was not well known, and her association with President Lula was not as clearly understood as it is today, it would have been seen as a resounding victory for her. However, from the perspective of three weeks ago, when Dilma seemed poised for an almost certain first round victory, having been touched by a scandal involving her replacement as President Lula’s Chief of Staff, she has lost momentum.
The news of the election has been focused on the performance of Marina Silva, the Green Party Candidate who polled more than 19%, five percentage points higher than indications in recent polls, and more than 10 percent higher than the indications she had been receiving from early in the campaign through September. There are some of us, however, who expected Marina Silva to do better, earlier and the recent movement to support her being only surprising in its lateness. An articulate, intelligent and attractive candidate with a resumé that screams personal achievement through seriousness, thoughtfulness and consideration always had the right to be heard, and finally was. It is clear that in the waning days of the campaign the issue of abortion was raised by thousands of Padres and Bishops across the country who exhorted their flocks to vote for Marina, and they did.
The candidate of the PSDB and former Governor of the State of São Paulo, José Serra was the main beneficiary of Marina’s late surge, but he also did better than recent polls indicated, moving from 28% to the 33% in the last few weeks. Serra ran a campaign that was widely criticized due to his isolation as a candidate and his desire not to use debates to attack the Workers Party candidate, Dilma Rousseff. To be sure, Serra was in the unenviable situation of running against the record of a President whose personal popularity oscillated during the campaign between 75% and 80%, which imposed limits on his ability to criticize the existing government. Now, having reached the objective of a second round, which seemed lost a few weeks ago, Serra must adopt a more pro-active campaign, first wooing the supporters of Marina Silva (initial indications are that they will split 50% Serra to 30% Dilma) and perhaps even the official support of the Green Party, and using the explicit and personal support of former President, Fernando Henrique Cardoso and, if available, Aécio Neves, the popular former Governor, and now Senator of Minas Gerais.
It is worth noting that in their wisdom the Presidential electors of Brazil gave the then Governor of the State of São Paulo, Geraldo Alckmin a chance at a second round four years ago when he was the PSDB’s nominee against President Lula. Having taken the time for a closer look at Alckmin, the voters chose, resoundingly to stay with Lula, and Alckmin received less votes in the second round than he did in the first.
The possibility of a Serra victory, one would have to recognize, is still remote. But Dilma Rousseff’s campaign is built overwhelmingly on the charisma of Lula, and therefore, in personal terms her support is very shallow. That is what gives the opposition the hope today that the second round could give a second surprise.
Marina Silva
Marina Silva, Presidential Candidate
Marina Silva is the dark horse of the 2010 Presidential election. She has problems of name recognition among Brazilin voters who, notwithstanding her lengthy and notable career, is largely unknown. She has positioned herself as the Green Party candidate this year, although she was a member of the PT for 30 years, until she resigned in August of 2009.
She has a remarkable personal story being born into a family of eight children in the state of Acre which has a population of 700,000, or 0.3% of the total Brazilian population situated in 1.8% of Brazilian territory. Acre is in the Northwestern corner of Brazil, and borders with both Peru and Bolivia.
Marina Silva was not taught to read until she was 16 years old when she was sent to Acre`s capital, Rio Branco, due to illness. There, she learned to read, became a domestic servant, and later graduated from the Federal University of Acre in history. She joined the Partido Trabalhista-PT (Workers Party) in 1985.
In 1988 she became the vereador (local councilor) to receive most votes in Rio Branco. In 1990 she became a State Deputy, once again with a record vote, and in 1994 became, at the age of 36, the youngest Senator in the history of Brazil. In 1996 she won the coveted Goldman Award for Environmental achievement. In 2002 she was re-elected Senator, but was offered the Ministry of Environment in 2003 by the newly elected President, Luiz Ignacio Lula da Silva, which she accepted. A little more than five years later she resigned from the Government due to the lack of support for environmental projects. This policy change is often laid at the door of Dilma Rousseff with whom she had a number of policy disagreements.
In 2007 she won the Champions of the Earth prize from the United Nations, an award won also by Al Gore among others, and the Norwegian Sofia award in recognition of her work to limit deforestation in the Amazon.
After leaving the PT in 2009 she joined the Green Party with the obvious intent of becoming a Presidential candidate under their auspices. In the early months of her campaign she has counted on a 7% to 8% of voting intentions, which has since risen to 10% – 12% since Ciro Gomes has with drawn. She has shown ability to draw 14% to 15% in her home region of the center West, and higher than average percentages also in the more educated and environmentally committed South-East.
The reason that Brazil News Blog takes time to introduce Marina Silva is first because she is a Presidential contender representing a minority, but important sector of the community (The green party of England won their first seat in Parliament this month). She is a serious and dedicated person with multiple achievements, and thirdly, she is a woman who has a resume that allows her to know and understand more aspects of society, and thus politics than her Presidential competitors. We foresee a period, over the next few months where the Brazilian population become more aware of her as a candidate of stature, and will see this reflected in voting intentions. Whether she will become a bigger threat to Dilma or Jose Serra is a matter of conjecture. But we don`t doubt that she will undercut the traditional politics of Brazil and become a serious Presidential player.
Her challenge will be to develop the Green ticket not just as an environmental pressure group, but as a political party that can develop a wide ranging governing program that makes sense in competition with those of the PT and the PSDB. We have no doubt that she can succeed at this. She has made a headline grabbing start with the nomination of Guilherme Leal, owner and director of the cosmetics company Natura as her Vice Presidential candidate. She also has to make the best of a less than national structure for the Green Party where Fernando Gabeira, the Green candidate for President for the Governorship of Rio de Janeiro, has indicated that he may well vote for Jose Serra rather than his own Party`s candidate.
Marina Silva`s candidacy for President has started well, and we expect to see a significant increase in the number of voting intentions she will receive as the campaign develops.
Cameron & Clegg Form a Coalition Government
Cameron & Clegg
Of course, as former British Prime Minister Harold Wilson famously used to say, a week in politics is a long time, and at Downing Street yesterday two of the losers had become winners, as they presented themselves as the new Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Minister. The Downing Street lawn, unlikely afternoon sun, youthful good looks, adolescent good humour and enthusiasm had taken over, and the only casualty was reality. Refreshing and vibrant, it was, with Prime Minister Cameron talking of Big Societies, New Politics and Seismic Shifts, and hailing compromise as a quality of the strong. He undoubtedly set the tone of the day, which was echoed by his new Deputy PM, Nick Clegg. Cameron is ushering in an era where National Interest supersedes Party Interest, which probably means that the Conservative manifestos, with political reform concessions to the Liberal Democrats, i.e. a referendum on the Alternate Vote System as well as, God help us, fixed term Parliaments, is now the National Interest.
Clegg said that this was a coalition that would last, and if they introduce legislation that will prevent a new election before 2015, then clearly something will have to last. However, many voters, including me, want a way out of this situation if the coalition of Conservatives and Progressives does not manage to survive, and history (but not necessarily British history) is replete with failed coalitions. So, please, let’s have fixed term elections if we move to a Presidential system, otherwise let’s wait until we have a new electoral system and think about this in that context.
The exuberance of the occasion was lost on neither the media nor the country, and often hard-headed and rational people were caught up in the contrast with the embattled, dour but dedicated Scotsman who had recently left the job, and were more than willing to give the boys a chance.
Day 2. A misunderstanding has emerged between the Liberal Democrat’s economic and financial expert, and member of the cabinet, Vince Cable, and the new Conservative Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne. It would appear that Mr. Cable thought he would have responsibility for reform of the UK’s financial sector; which could include the breaking-up of present banks into Investment and Commercial banks, but apparently not. The Treasury will be responsible for the issue. Good job it was nothing important.
Political Instability in the UK
Nick Clegg - Kingmaker
This subject is not the usual fodder for the brazilnewsblog, but we thought it both interesting and important enough in the context of the financial crisis emanating from Europe to take a closer look.
None of the leaders of the three major political parties in the UK are happy today. Gordon Brown, the Prime Minister, is the leader of the Labour Party that has 91 less seats in the House of Commons than he had yesterday. David Cameron, the leader of the Conservative Party was expected to win the election (i.e. a majority of the seats in the House of Commons) handily yesterday after the country had signaled fatigue with the Labour Party after 13 years, and worse, with a Prime Minister, Gordon Brown who even before he called a voter a bigot behind her back last week was widely unpopular. Cameron has 307 seats when he needed 326 for a majority. And Nick Clegg, the leader of the Liberal Democrats, who after the first debate was being touted as a potential Prime Minister and after the last debate, was at least equal with Labour, found himself the leader of a much reduced party in Parliament with only 57 seats, losing 7 to the Conservatives.
The UK is a country where bargaining to form coalitions is not a usual pastime. The electoral system works to the advantage of the larger parties to exaggerate their vote getting into much larger percentages of seats in the legislature. Thus, Cameron, Clegg and Brown have been flung into a position of bargaining for which there is some, but little precedent. What are the options open to the parties at this stage?
The “Constitutional” position is the Gordon Brown can continue being Prime Minister until such time as he loses a vote of confidence in Parliament. It is also perceived that the incumbent Prime Minister has the right to try and present to the Queen a solution i.e. coalition, to the “lack of a majority in Parliament” problem prior to other solutions being considered. However, the carpet has been taken out from under his efforts by Nick Clegg saying (as he said during the election campaign) that he feels it his duty to commence negotiations with the Party that has most seats in Parliament i.e. the Conservatives. Other considerations by Clegg could have been that the sum of the Labour and Liberal representatives does not reach a majority, which implies a broader, and by definition a weaker coalition, including both Welsh and Scottish Nationalists.
The problem from Clegg’s point of view is that the price of the support of the Liberals in the past has been electoral reform, or Proportional Representation, as it is more specifically known. This, however, has always been anathema to the Conservatives who have strongly supported the existing “first-past-the-post” system. In 1974, under similar circumstances, the then Conservative Leader, Prime Minister Edward Heath offered then Liberal leader Jeremy Thorpe a Commission to review and make recommendations concerning electoral reform, which was not adequate for the Liberals. This time, Cameron is offering an “all-party committee of inquiry on electoral reform”, which also is unlikely to be successful, although its his first offer in a process that could be prolonged. Labour has already embraced electoral reform, and in that sense would be an easier partner for the Liberals.
An issue for the Liberals is Gordon Brown, and a condition of their joining in a coalition with labour, should the talks with the Conservatives break down might be the removal of Gordon Brown as the Labour leader.
It is very early into the process at present, and we will monitor developments, however, the British Stock market Index, the FTSE was down 2.3% on the day.
Down to Three – A Simplified Scenario
Ciro Ferreira Gomes
The Presidential race is about to change from four declared candidates to three. Insofar as there is already a race, and there undoubtedly is between the two top candidates, José Serra, (PSDB) former Governor of the State of São Paulo, and Dilma Rousseff (PT) the former Minister of Casa Civil, the one candidate who has had difficulty finding a strategy is the former Governor of the State of Ceara, Minister of Finance in the government of Itamar Franco, and currently Federal Deputy, Ciro Gomes.
The fourth candidate is Marina Silva, formerly the Minister of the Environment in the government of President Lula, and currently the Presidential candidate of the Green Party.
Today’s news concerns the candidacy of Ciro Gomes, which has lacked a certain consistency. On the one hand, Ciro is close to President Lula, as he has served in his administration, and is associated with the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB) that is a natural ally of President Lula’s Party, the PT, and candidate, Dilma Rousseff. On the other hand, Ciro Gomez has attempted to be an ally of Governor Aécio Neves (PSDB) of Minas Gerais in encouraging the Governor to become a Presidential candidate and compete for the PSDB’s candidacy with José Serra, the opponent of Dilma Rousseff.
The fact that first, Aécio Neves decided not to compete with José Serra, and that secondly, the PSB’s desire to support a winner in the Presidential race i.e. the PT’s candidate, has left Ciro Gomes isolated. For what its worth at this stage of the Presidential election, Ciro Gomes’ standing in the polls has declined from the 13% level in January, to 8% today.
To be sure, President Lula has made signals that he would like Ciro Gomes to be the PT coalition’s candidate for the Governorship of the State of São Paulo this year. Ciro Gomes was actually born in the State of São Paulo, but has lived or been associated for most of his life with the State of Ceará. However, he has taken the precaution to re-register himself as a resident and voter in the State of São Paulo. We divine from his lack of interest so far in running for Governor, that the prospect of an electoral race against Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) appears to him to be an uphill struggle.
In discussions yesterday the PSB and Ciro Gomes have come to the conclusion that his candidacy will not be endorsed by the PSB, but that regional directors of the PSB will suggest to Ciro that they see their future in the Presidential Election as being allied to the PT in support of Dilma Rousseff. This would provide Ciro Gomez with a way to gracefully withdraw his candidacy without it being seen that he was being pressured by President Lula. Or, that within the PSB there was a lack of respect for him as a candidate. The PSB’s announcement will be made on Tuesday of next week.
None of the above provides Ciro with an indication of what he might do next, but at 52 years old he still has time to wait.
Dilma’s Difficulties
Dilma in Ceara
• On April 7th, Candidate Dilma paid a visit to the grave of Tancredo Neves, the person who would have been the first civil President after the military regime in 1985, had he not fallen ill on the eve of his investiture, an illness from which he would not recover. The visit was a symbolic place for the start Dilma’s solo candidacy, as Tancredo had fought long and hard for democratic principles. However, as Dilma was reminded after her visit to the grave Tancredo often had to fight against the PT to reach his objectives. Indeed, the PT went so far as to expel deputies that voted for Tancredo. Thus, the leaders of the PSDB, PPS and DEM issued a statement after Dilma’s visit saying it was late, badly explained and opportunistic. Aides of Dilma explained that they had been invited by the family of Tancredo (which includes Tancredos grandson, the former governor of Minas gerais, Aecio Neves) to visit the grave. This invitation was rapidly denied by the Neves family. [Perhaps Dilma might have thought a little more about the conflicting images of giving birth to her electoral campaign in a graveyard!]
• On Monday, Dilma took the opportunity of making a distinction between her experience during the military dictatorship, and that of Jose Serra. Dilma, after having been a prisoner of the military stayed in Brazil, whereas Jose Serra chose exile in Chile and later France. Her comments led to the interpretation that Serra had run away from a fight, but that she was not afraid to stay and fight. This led to a humiliating retraction by Dilma of her statements.
• On a visit to Ceara, the political base of Ciro Gomes, the candidate of the PSB for President, Dilma went alone, apparently without considering taking Ciro with her. The PSB is an ally of Dilma`s, the PT, and it would have been wise for her to visit the State with its favourite son. Indeed, Cid Gomes, the brother of Ciro is Ceara’s Governor, who chose not to attend any of Dilma`s meetings, nor the lunch that was held for her. She cancelled some of her meetings in Ceara later in the day.
Commentators have made the point that Dilma needs to have more election strategists working for her, and less marketing experts. The main thing that appears to be lacking, however, is a sensitivity to political subjects that can affect electoral performance.
Henrique Meirelles Stays Put
Henrique Meirelles, President of the Central Bank
Last week saw the final battle on the part of Henrique Meirelles, the current President of Banco Central do Brazil to become the Vice-Presidential candidate on the Workers Party/ Movement for a Democratic Brazil Party (“PT/ PMDB”) ticket, of which Dilma Rousseff is the Presidential candidate.
There are two obvious reasons as to why Meirelles was not successful. The first was his obvious success as head of the Central Bank, and the foundation he has laid for a successful monetary policy that has sustained Brazil throughout the eight years of the Lula administration, and a consequent desire to keep him where he can continue to contribute during the election period. The second reason is that given the electoral pact between the PT and the PMDB, the Vice-Presidential candidate has to come from the PMDB. Meirelles is a relative new comer to the PMDB, having been elected to the Chamber of Deputies in 2002 as a member of the PSDB, the party of Dilma Rousseff`s principal opponent, Jose Serra. Meirelles became a member of the PMDB only in October of 2009.
The current President of the Sao Paulo PMDB is Michel Temer, 69, a federal deputy from the State of Sao Paulo who is a member of the PMDB since 1981. Temer has shown a disposition to be Dilma`s Vice President, and even though the press has indicated that Lula would prefer someone else, including Henrique Meirelles, Temer`s power in the PMDB has proved to be unshakeable, and he continues as the firm candidate.
Depending upon how one is analyzing the election, the choice of Mereilles or Temer has appeals to very different audiences. On the one hand, Mereilles is from Goias, and aside from having been elected a federal deputy in 2002, a post that he never assumed due to his appointment as head of Banco Central, this is his only experience as a politician. However, he is almost a household name due in part to his role as President of Bank Boston Brazil, and later worldwide, but mainly due to his seven years plus at Banco Central. Mereilles has enormous credibility with the international community, and more importantly in terms of the election, with the Brazilian business and financial community. If, as we understand, President Lula was interested in adding Meirelles’ rich financial credibility from which he has benefited, to the Dilma electoral ticket, Meirelles would have been the person to co-opt for the Vice Presidential role.
Temer brings his thirty years of experience in the PMDB and his roles, including President, in the Chamber of Deputies and will undoubtedly have much influence in constructing and maintaining a nationwide PMBD coalition that will support Dilma. Temer will also be powerful in the State of Sao Paulo, even though Orestes Quercia, a powerful PMDB politician in the interior of the State of Sao Paulo (and former Governor) is apparently supporting Jose Serra.
If the PT/ PMDB wanted the business sector to be less insecure about Dilma, Mereilles would have been the choice. Without him, election lines will almost certainly be more polarized.
The question that is now on everyone’s lips, is what will Meirelles do after finishing the term of eight years at Banco Central, now that he has excluded himself from all elections, including Governor of Goias, Senator for Goias, or, again, Federal Deputy.
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