Lula the Diplomat and Iran

Iran

The agreement reached yesterday between Iran, Turkey and Brazil has been greeted with reactions in the international community ranging from euphoria to indifference. Indeed, some countries have demonstrated two reactions one, closely followed by another. The first reaction is to praise the efforts of Brazil and Turkey and to see the agreement at least as a sign of good intentions on the part of Iran. The second reaction is to recognize, as did Bernard Kouchner, the Foreign Minister of France, that the agreement “does nothing to settle the problem posed by the Iranian nuclear program”.

The government of the USA did its best not to appear churlish by welcoming the agreement, with faint praise, as a positive step. However, like many other nations they pointed to Iran’s continued resolve to add to its manufacture of uranium that is at least 20% enriched was a continuing violation of United Nations Security Council Resolutions.

The agreement, however, was expected to give some breathing room to Iran while Western diplomats come to a consensus as to whether there is still a need to move forward on the sanctions plan already mooted. Russia’s reaction was important, and the Deputy Prime Minister, Sergei Ivanov who said after the announcement of the agreement that the Sanctions resolution should be voted soon anyway, and that Iran should “open up to Inspectors”. However, if the agreement was an attempt by Iran’s President Almedenejad to give China and Russia pause for thought as they have been less inclined to vote for sanctions than the other members of the Security Counsel, then, it would appear he has failed.

In further developments today, United States Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton has announced the text of a draft resolution to be submitted to the United Nations Security Counsel that repudiates the agreement made yesterday, and calls for sanctions. The resolution has the support of all of the five permanent members of the Security Counsel, the USA, the United Kingdom, France Russia and China, in addition to Germany, which is not a permanent member. Secretary Clinton stated, in a direct rebuff to the efforts of Brazil and Turkey that “I think this announcement is as convincing an answer to the efforts undertaken in Tehran over the last few days as any we could provide.” In other words, she, and the other members of the Security Counsel were not impressed.

The question, from the Brazil perspective, is whither the international credibility of President Lula. Is he a statesman with vision and patience, or a meddler in affairs he does not understand? Jose Alencar, not an unbiased bystander, but Brazil’s Vice President said, “Brazil is every day more respected in the international area, thanks to this simple citizen” (President Lula). However, sources in the US Senate were saying that Brazil is squandering its good will in the USA with its attempts to assume a more important diplomatic role in the world. With today’s news it appears that Lula’s diplomatic prowess appears to have been short-lived.

Presidents Lula and Almedinejad