Lula the Diplomat and Iran

Iran

The agreement reached yesterday between Iran, Turkey and Brazil has been greeted with reactions in the international community ranging from euphoria to indifference. Indeed, some countries have demonstrated two reactions one, closely followed by another. The first reaction is to praise the efforts of Brazil and Turkey and to see the agreement at least as a sign of good intentions on the part of Iran. The second reaction is to recognize, as did Bernard Kouchner, the Foreign Minister of France, that the agreement “does nothing to settle the problem posed by the Iranian nuclear program”.

The government of the USA did its best not to appear churlish by welcoming the agreement, with faint praise, as a positive step. However, like many other nations they pointed to Iran’s continued resolve to add to its manufacture of uranium that is at least 20% enriched was a continuing violation of United Nations Security Council Resolutions.

The agreement, however, was expected to give some breathing room to Iran while Western diplomats come to a consensus as to whether there is still a need to move forward on the sanctions plan already mooted. Russia’s reaction was important, and the Deputy Prime Minister, Sergei Ivanov who said after the announcement of the agreement that the Sanctions resolution should be voted soon anyway, and that Iran should “open up to Inspectors”. However, if the agreement was an attempt by Iran’s President Almedenejad to give China and Russia pause for thought as they have been less inclined to vote for sanctions than the other members of the Security Counsel, then, it would appear he has failed.

In further developments today, United States Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton has announced the text of a draft resolution to be submitted to the United Nations Security Counsel that repudiates the agreement made yesterday, and calls for sanctions. The resolution has the support of all of the five permanent members of the Security Counsel, the USA, the United Kingdom, France Russia and China, in addition to Germany, which is not a permanent member. Secretary Clinton stated, in a direct rebuff to the efforts of Brazil and Turkey that “I think this announcement is as convincing an answer to the efforts undertaken in Tehran over the last few days as any we could provide.” In other words, she, and the other members of the Security Counsel were not impressed.

The question, from the Brazil perspective, is whither the international credibility of President Lula. Is he a statesman with vision and patience, or a meddler in affairs he does not understand? Jose Alencar, not an unbiased bystander, but Brazil’s Vice President said, “Brazil is every day more respected in the international area, thanks to this simple citizen” (President Lula). However, sources in the US Senate were saying that Brazil is squandering its good will in the USA with its attempts to assume a more important diplomatic role in the world. With today’s news it appears that Lula’s diplomatic prowess appears to have been short-lived.

Presidents Lula and Almedinejad

Today’s News

Brazil News Round-Up

Latest Poll

The latest Ibope poll showing voting intentions for the Presidential Election in October were published today showing the momentum of Dilma Rousseff, as the Worker’s Party (PT) candidate continuing, with a rise of 5% to 30%, from the 25% support she had in February. The basis of this poll was the presumption of 4 candidates, being José Serra, (PSDB), Ciro Gomes, (PSB) and Marina Silva (PV).

For Serra the poll shows a slight decline in intentions from 36% to 35%. Ciro Gomes remains at 11% of intentions, and Marina Silva’s support declines from 8% to 6%.

In scenario 2, without the participation of Ciro Gomes, the intentions are Serra, 38%, Dilma, 33%, and Marina 8%. Among men, Dilma leads with an advantage of 36% to 34%. Among women, Serra leads with 37% to 25%. Regionally, Dilma and Serra are essentially tied in the South, with Dilma at 34% and Serra at 36%. In the Northeast, Dilma leads Serra by 39% to 25%. In the North/Center West, Serra leads by 41% to 26%, and in the most populous region, the South East, Serra leads by 40% to 25%.

In perhaps a telling statistic about the Brazilian electorate, when asked about the candidate that President Lula supported, 39% responded that they did not know.

The present poll could give some satisfaction to both sides, with the PT clearly pointing to Dilma’s gains, but with the PSDB perhaps retaining the satisfaction of Serra maintaining a lead while Dilma has had the stage to herself for nearly the whole of 2010.

Lula in the Mideast

President Lula Places a Wreath on the Tomb of Yassir Arafat

Lula continued his visit to the Mideast, visiting the grave of Yassir Arafat in Palestine, and meeting with Mahmoud Abbas, the President of the Palestinian Authority, Lula was finally asked to provide mediation assistance. However, it was not exactly in the situation he was expecting. Abbas, who’s government is supported by Fatah, requested Lula’s assistance in asking the Iranian government to cease financing Hamas, which according to Abbas has impeded progress towards Palestinians speaking with one voice.
In fact, Abbas specifically asked Lula not to get involved directly in the fatah/ Hamas difficulties, saying this was a situation to be negotiated with Palestines arab brothers.

Abbas also took the opportunity to show his displeasure with Brazil for having agreed to Israel becoming a member of the Southern, Latin American Common Market (Mercosur). Lula has also been roundly criticized by Israel for visiting the tomb of Yassir Arafat while refusing to visit the tomb of Theodor Herzl, the founder of Zionism. Lula has not shied away from criticizing the Israelis for the planned construction of their 1,600 residential units in East Jerusalem.

An analysis of Lula’s achievements on this visit to the Mideast, is better left for next week, but instead of gaining the confidence of both sides, he has found himself in the rather predictable position, no doubt where he feels comfortable, of being regarded as a polite visitor to Israel, but a supporter of the Arab cause.

The Monetary Policy Committee (Cupom)

Yesterday Cupom met and resolved, by 5 votes to 3 not to change the Selic interest rate. The Selic rate is the basis for overnight financing rates based upon guarantees of Federal Government obligations. The close vote is interpreted to suggest that the rate will almost certainly be changed in April from its current level of 8.75% to probably 9.25%. The stock market, which enjoyed most of the day above 70.000 points, declined to 69,723 points on the news. The eventual increase in the Selic rate will be as a response to recent indications that consumer inflation is running at a rate of nearly 5.0%.

This Cupom meeting was probably the last to be held with Henrique Meirelles as President of Banco Central. As a man with political ambitions he will probably soon announce his post-Banco Central intentions and resign his post in preparation for an election.