Going to the Second Round

Winning while Losing

Brazil has been in the headlines for various positive reasons this year, but the performance of its electoral system yesterday deserves the plaudits of us all. With the polls closing at 5.00 PM on Sunday afternoon, most of the results were clear by 9.00 PM in this vast country of more than 200 million people, and 137 million eligible voters. Further, voting is obligatory in Brazil, and therefore turnout is always huge!

The results of the election also showed that the Brazilian population has a mind and a will of its own, and will not be easily bamboozled into accepting candidates that are sponsored by existing popular Presidents and governments without having a requisite amount of time to make a thoughtful decision.

The Presidential election, first round, produced no winner, as the effective election of a Presidential candidate requires 50% + 1 of valid votes. Dilma Rousseff, the candidate of the Workers Party, the existing government and President Lula came up short of the 50% necessary, receiving 46.8%.

Time has its way of changing perspectives, and if this result had been foreseen in May of this year when Dilma was not well known, and her association with President Lula was not as clearly understood as it is today, it would have been seen as a resounding victory for her. However, from the perspective of three weeks ago, when Dilma seemed poised for an almost certain first round victory, having been touched by a scandal involving her replacement as President Lula’s Chief of Staff, she has lost momentum.

The news of the election has been focused on the performance of Marina Silva, the Green Party Candidate who polled more than 19%, five percentage points higher than indications in recent polls, and more than 10 percent higher than the indications she had been receiving from early in the campaign through September. There are some of us, however, who expected Marina Silva to do better, earlier and the recent movement to support her being only surprising in its lateness. An articulate, intelligent and attractive candidate with a resumé that screams personal achievement through seriousness, thoughtfulness and consideration always had the right to be heard, and finally was. It is clear that in the waning days of the campaign the issue of abortion was raised by thousands of Padres and Bishops across the country who exhorted their flocks to vote for Marina, and they did.

The candidate of the PSDB and former Governor of the State of São Paulo, José Serra was the main beneficiary of Marina’s late surge, but he also did better than recent polls indicated, moving from 28% to the 33% in the last few weeks. Serra ran a campaign that was widely criticized due to his isolation as a candidate and his desire not to use debates to attack the Workers Party candidate, Dilma Rousseff. To be sure, Serra was in the unenviable situation of running against the record of a President whose personal popularity oscillated during the campaign between 75% and 80%, which imposed limits on his ability to criticize the existing government. Now, having reached the objective of a second round, which seemed lost a few weeks ago, Serra must adopt a more pro-active campaign, first wooing the supporters of Marina Silva (initial indications are that they will split 50% Serra to 30% Dilma) and perhaps even the official support of the Green Party, and using the explicit and personal support of former President, Fernando Henrique Cardoso and, if available, Aécio Neves, the popular former Governor, and now Senator of Minas Gerais.

It is worth noting that in their wisdom the Presidential electors of Brazil gave the then Governor of the State of São Paulo, Geraldo Alckmin a chance at a second round four years ago when he was the PSDB’s nominee against President Lula. Having taken the time for a closer look at Alckmin, the voters chose, resoundingly to stay with Lula, and Alckmin received less votes in the second round than he did in the first.

The possibility of a Serra victory, one would have to recognize, is still remote. But Dilma Rousseff’s campaign is built overwhelmingly on the charisma of Lula, and therefore, in personal terms her support is very shallow. That is what gives the opposition the hope today that the second round could give a second surprise.